The weak dollar is sending gold above $1,300 an ounce for the first time since January 2015, as prices advance 23% YTD, rebounding from three straight annual declines. Investors have flooded back to the yellow metal as risks to the global economy prompt the Fed to take a slower approach to further interest-rate increases.
Oil prices are retreating from 2016 highs as rising production in the Middle East outweighed a decline in U.S. output and a slide in the dollar. OPEC crude production rose in April to 32.64M barrels per day, close to the highest level in recent history. Meanwhile, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said on Sunday that oil prices may have bottomed out, providing that the health of the global economy does not pose a concern. Crude futures -0.7% to $45.58/bbl.
In Asia, Japan -3.1% to 16147. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India -0.7% to 25437.
In Europe, at midday, London closed. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude -0.7% to $45.58. Gold +1% to $1303.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.81%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:50 Fed’s Lockhart speech
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
HOD Range Projection = 2073.40; LOD Range Projection = 2047.10; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2085.055; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 2035.75; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2076.25; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2075.50; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2107.16;10 Day Average True Range = 17.90.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and convert 2063.50, THEN initial upside objective is to 2068.50 followed by 2073.50. Should price get back above 2076.25 (Prior CD1 Low) then then would be a bullish sign.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert 2063.50 and subsequent violation of 2058 would be a continued sign of weakness that could lead to retest of Friday’s deep low near 2046 SPOT.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS