Recent supply disruptions coupled with growing demand from China and India continue to push oil prices higher, with Brent crude (NYSEARCA:BNO) pushing through $50 per barrel in London trade, and WTI crude (NYSEARCA:USO) just pennies shy of that level in New York. Prices are now up about 80% from February, when they hit a 12-year low. The latest bullish news was a greater-than-expected inventory build reported by the EIA yesterday. The bull market may not last as producers inside of OPEC – Iran in particular – are set to increase output, and wildfire-related Canadian production declines are coming to an end.
In Asia, Japan +0.1% to 16772. Hong Kong +0.1% to 20397. China +0.2%to 2822. India +1.9% to 26366.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.6% to $49.87. Gold +0.3% to $1230.10.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.86%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
5:15 Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Monetary and Economic Policy
8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
12:15 PM Fed’s Powell: U.S. Monetary and Economic Policy
1:00 PM Results of $28B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
For the second straight day “Gap n Go” took effect as price continued to vault higher to reach CD3 Maximum Penetration Levels. This “Power Cycle” shows no signs of weakness as Hedge Fund Managers find themselves having far too many short-sided positions which must be covered. Big Mutual Funds know this and as such have used this to propel prices to current levels.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Norm is for some type of decline, though with this “Power Cycle” any decline may only be relatively shallow…Keep vigilant!
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2104.92; LOD Range Projection: 2068.33; CD1 Max Penetration Level: 2101.75; CD1 Max Violation Level: 2061.89; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2043.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2066.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2067.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 22.42
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above 2083.00 and clears and converts PH (2092.50), THEN initial upside objective is 2094.50 – 2096.75 STATX Zone. Above this zone targets 2101.75 – 2105.00.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2083.00 SPOT would be initial sign of weakness, opening the door for a corrective pullback to relieve recent buying pressure. Downside target would be 2078 SPOT, then 2070.00
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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