Trade Strategy 5.4.16

Markets

U.S. stock index futures are sinking into the red, ahead of a bevy of big-name earnings. Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) and Delphi Automotive (NYSE:DLPH) will report first quarter results early in the day, with numbers due from Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC), Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) and 21st Century Fox (FOX, FOXA) after the market close. The session will also be a busy one for economic data, with the ADP employment report for April, factory orders, productivity and the ISM services index all on tap. The U.S. dollar index is up slightly, as the greenback recovers from a 16-month low.

Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.7% to 20524. China -0.1% to 2991. India -0.5% to 25102.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.2%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.6%. S&P -0.7%. Nasdaq -0.7%. Crude +0.1% to $43.71. Gold -1.1% to $1277.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.79%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 International Trade
8:30 Productivity and Costs
8:30 Treasury Refunding Quarterly Announcement
9:45 PMI Services Index
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
PTG Trading
S&P e-mini (ES) continuing its slide lower in overnight trade on the heals of long liquidation in prior trading session. We highlighted that price structure dynamics measured by 3 Day Central Pivot Zone shifted to “bear mode” even though there have been very large Market on Close (MOC) buy imbalances ($2.6B).
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently trading near 2041.40 LOD ATR Range Projection…Odds are favorable (83%) for price to trade back to Cycle Day 1 Low (2055.50) to notch a Positive 3 Day Cycle.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2059.60; LOD Range Projection = 2041.40; CD3 Maximum Penetration Level = 2091.56; CD3 Maximum Violation Level = 2037.63; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2055.50; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2063.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2087.35;10 Day Average True Range = 18.85.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price holds above 2041.40 during cash session, THEN odds favor a tradeable bounce back to 2055.50. First hurdle will be to convert PL (2048.00) to support.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PL (2048.00) to support and subsequent violation of 2041.40 opens door for continued long liquidation. Maximum Violation Level for CD3 is 2037.63.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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