Trade Strategy 5.5.16

Markets

Activity in China’s service sector expanded again in April, though the gains were slightly less robust than in March, as firms resumed adding staff following a rare decline the previous month. The Caixin services PMI dropped to 51.8 from 52.2, as new business climbed at the fastest pace since the beginning of the year, but expectations remained unchanged. The survey focuses on small- and medium-sized enterprises, while the official data tracks larger firms.

Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.5% to 20429. China +0.2% to 2997. India +0.6% to 25262.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +3.1% to $45.12. Gold +0.2% to $1277.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.78%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar
Chain Store Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:50 Fed’s Bullard speech
4:30 Money Supply
4:30 Fed Balance Sheet
PTG Trading
We knew odds (83%) favored a rally on Cycle Day 3 to recapture 2055.50 (CD1 Low)…It just did not happen during RTH Session, but occurred in overnight trade. as price has traded up to 2060 (3D CPZ).
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…We normally would be anticipating some sort of decline today, though with recent cycles slightly disrupted in timing, we’ll remain flexible to any directional bias. Overall trend remains bearish as priced continues to stay below a descending 3 Day Central Pivot (2059.75) which is marked as key resistance. Bulls will need to convert this level to support for increased chance of higher prices.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract

HOD Range Projection = 2065.38; LOD Range Projection = 2040.87; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 2068.80; CD1 Maximum Violation Level = 2030.56; Cycle Day 1 Low = 2055.50; 3 Day Central Pivot = 2059.75; 3 Day Cycle Target = 2087.35;10 Day Average True Range = 19.13

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

 

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has rallied in overnight trade to recapture prior CD1 Low (2055.50) producing a “delayed” Positive 3 Day Cycle. Price will need to hold above 2046 – 2048 zone for continued Sign of Strength (SOS). Initial resistance is marked between 2060 – 2062 zone.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of the 2046 – 48 zone would potentially negate the current rally (bounce) from deep lows and be a renewed Sign of Weakness (SOW) targeting a retest of 2040 handle prior low. Average Cycle Decline on CD1 measures 2036.91 with CD1 Max Violation Level 2030.56.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

Leave a Reply