Markets
Equities across the globe are drifting into the red ahead of a data heavy week in the U.S. that will include retail sales, inflation and other economic figures. Reasons for the declines: Brexit woes, weak Chinese investment growth, fresh strength in the yen, slipping oil prices and the worst mass shooting in U.S. history (see all below). Traders are also anticipating a busy week for central banks with Fed, BOJ, SNB and Bank of England meetings.
With ten days to go until a Brexit vote, the “Leave” campaign has taken a lead over “Remain” in the latest YouGov poll, reversing the one point lead held by the pro-EU camp in the last survey taken on June 6. Another poll from research firm ORB showed that 55% of British citizens felt they should leave the EU, versus 45% who favored staying. Sterling has taken another leg down this morning, falling 0.7% to $1.4150.
In Asia, Japan -3.5% to 16019. Hong Kong -2.5% to 20512. China -3.2% to 2833. India -0.9% to 26396.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -1.4%. Frankfurt -1.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -1.1% to $48.52. Gold +0.9% to $1287.20.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.61%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
No events scheduled
PTG Trading
Nervous traders/investors liquidated long positions on Friday as the looming Brexit vote on June 23rd is creating high anxiety levels and “risk-off” seems the safest bet. Friday was Cycle Day 3 and markets failed to get a positive 3 day rally, so in principle this is a bearish sign unless negated on early this week.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…There is room for the decline which began on Friday to continue…Currently in overnight trade price has Average Cycle Decline of 2078.50. This could be a potential floor should the buyers step-in aggressively to buy the weakness. Failure to find sufficient buying interest opens door to probe lower for secure low.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2091.45; LOD Range Projection: 2070.50; CD1 Max Penetration Level: 2110.25; CD1 Max Violation Level: 2073.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2097.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2100.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2102.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 14.45
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price is currently trading pre-cash at 2078.50 which is the Average Cycle Decline Target…IF price can hold this level during cash session, THEN potential exists for a rebound rally targeting 2090.50 Central Pivot. Strength above this level furthers the rally to 2100 potential.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2078.50 to resistance continues the long liquidation which began Friday. Lower levels to consider are 2075…2073…down to 2070.50.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN