Trade Strategy 6.13.18

Markets
 
With the Fed set to hike its benchmark interest rate for a second time this year, the focus today will turn to Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. New projections could show the central bank tilting toward four increases in 2018, rather than the three hinted to in March. Investors may also render a “hawkish” view if the Fed sounds more optimistic on the economy, raises its interest rate forecast, or announces that Powell will hold press conferences after every meeting.
 
In Asia, Japan +0.4%. Hong Kong -1.2%. China -1%. India +0.1%
In Europe, at midday, London +0.5%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.2%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude -0.2% to $66.26. Gold -0.1% to $1298.30. Bitcoin -1.6% to $6443. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.95%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Producer Price Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM FOMC Forecast
2:00 PM Chairman Press Conference

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2771.50. Average Range for CD1 is 22.75 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 71% Odds of decline > 20 = 41%

Market Bias: Bullish

CD1 Range High = 2812.00          CD1 Range Low = 2773.00          CD1 Range Avg = 22.75 

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 2796.00, THEN upside objective measures 2802 – 2804 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 2786.00, THEN downside objective measures 2774 – 2772 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2808.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2777.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2739.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2740.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2816.00; 10 Day Average True Range 18.50; VIX: 12.09

Click Here

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7195.50. Average Range for CD1 is 50.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 25 = 63%

Market Bias: Bullish

CD1 Range High = 7280.25          CD1 Range Low = 7207.50          CD1 Range Avg = 50.00

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 7257.50, THEN upside objective measures 7274.25 – 7280.00 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 7230.25, THEN downside objective measures 7217.50 – 7207.50 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7294.75; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7193.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7138.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7187.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7292.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 64.00; VIX: 12.09

Click Here

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN