Monetary policy decisions, pressured oil prices and Brexit worries are weighing on world shares, as money continues to flow into safe-haven assets. The Bank of Japan and National Bank of Switzerland disclosed their monthly rate announcements overnight and the Bank of England is about to take the mic. What happened at yesterday’s Fed meeting? The FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, while downgrading its “dot plot.”
The Bank of Japan has kept monetary policy steady and lowered its inflation forecast, stating the consumer price index’s year-on-year change is likely to be slightly negative or flat for the time being. The yen surged through ¥104 to the dollar following the news, sparking speculation on whether Japanese policymakers would intervene to halt the strengthening currency, while the Nikkei tumbled 3.1% to 15,434.
In Asia, Japan -3.1% to 15434. Hong Kong -2.1% to 20038. China -0.5% to 2872. India -0.8% to 26525.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude -1.3% to $47.40. Gold +1.5% to $1307.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 1.56%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Current Account
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Aside from spike in price immediately following FOMC Rate Decision, S&P e-mini (ES) essentially stalled out at 2076 SPOT, which was HOD Projection. Intra-day support at 2070 held firm all day until a very large $1.1B MOC Sell Imbalance knocked price 10 handles lower into settlement.
Today begins new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Having reached penetration levels and failed to sustain solid bid, the current cycle’s decline has effectively unfolded. Using 2074 as highest close yesterday minus 22.50 (average decline) targets 2051.50 for lower projected target. Currently, overnight low is measured at 2051.75.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2068.25; LOD Range Projection: 2048.50; CD1 Max Penetration Level: 2088.00; CD1 Max Violation Level: 2048.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2068.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2068.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2095.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 16.50
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price can hold at or above 2051.50, THEN potential for snap-back bounce may unfold during cash session. Should this occur initial objective would be 2062 – 63 zone. Price will need to stabilize for additional upside.
Scenario 2: IF price fails to bounce back above PL (2059.75) and back into prior day’s range, potential exists for continued sell-down. Violation and conversion of ONL (2051.75) targets 2048 LOD ATR Range Projection / CD1 Max Violation Level.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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