EU campaigning has been suspended in the U.K. following the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox, a strong advocate for voting to ‘stay’ in next week’s referendum. She was reportedly killed by Thomas Mair, who shouted “Britain first” before the attack. According to analysts, Cox’s death could change the psychology of the campaign and sway public opinion towards the safety of a unified economic bloc. Markets seem to believe that too, with sterling up by half a percent and world equities trading higher.
A marked rise in political risks threatens to derail the eurozone’s still fragile recovery, warns the IMF, adding that the region is at a “critical juncture.” Managing Director Christine Lagarde also called for the creation of a fund to help finance structural reforms in the euro area, echoing ideas floated by the European Commission in 2012 but subsequently dropped in the face of German opposition
In Asia, Japan +1.1% to 15599. Hong Kong +0.7% to 20169. China +0.4% to 2885. India +0.4% to 26625.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.2%. Paris +0.9%. Frankfurt +1.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude +1.6% to $47.48. Gold -0.6% to $1290.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 1.6%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Volatility is back on the rise as price pushed lower to deep extremes (2040.75) before buyers stepped in to buy the weakness, absorb the selling and rally price higher, following a week of persistent barrage of selling as “risk-off” ahead of Brexit vote next week. Options Expiry today has also added to the increased price volatility.
Today is Cycle day 2 (CD2)…This Cycle’s Rally is already in place, so with options expiration today, trade could be aimless and choppy. Some “back n fill” would be the normal course today to balance out recent price action.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2083.00; LOD Range Projection: 2056.75; CD2 Max Penetration Level: 2082.00; CD2 Max Violation Level: 2033.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2040.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2064.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2095.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 17.90
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to find renewed buy response at or above 2060 handle for the current rally to remain intact. IF price clears and converts PH (2071.50), THEN additional upside projects 2076 – 2079.50 STATX Zone.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2060 handle would be initial sign of weakness..Failure to find sufficient buy response on any pullback may embolden the Bears to attempt a push lower. Break of 2056 SPOT (LOD Projection) opens door for retest of lower levels.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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