OPEC is set for another showdown during today’s producer summit in Vienna, with reports of an output agreement being shot down by Iran as Saudi Arabia tries to revive coordinated action. Member countries failed to reach a consensus at their April get-together, but world crude production fell nonetheless, due to outages in Nigeria, Libya, Venezuela and Canada. Capped by those disruptions, along with rising output by OPEC’s Middle East producers, the group’s overall production has remained largely flat this year, currently standing at 32.5M bpd.
In Asia, Japan -2.3% to 16563. Hong Kong +0.5% to 20859. China +0.4% to 2925. India +0.5% to 26843.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude flat at $49.01. Gold +0.3% to $1218.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 1.83%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Chain Store Sales
Fed’s Evans: U.S. Economic and Monetary Policy
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:35 Fed’s Powell speech
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Fed’s Kaplan speech
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Following on the heals of a near perfect Cycle Day 1 (CD1), yesterday’s performance was classic Cycle Day 2 (CD2), as price probed lower to retest the CD1 Low and clean-out weak sell-stops. Buyers re-emerged as anticipated in prior DTS Briefing 6.1.16 and the rally began pushing price up to projected 2098 SPOT outlined in Scenario 1.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Most of this Cycle’s Rally has unfolded, so bulls will need to follow-through today to reach 2110 – 2112 Average Cycle Rally Target. Failure to clear and convert CD2 High (2099.25) may create some renewed price pressure.
****Worthy of Note: 3,5 & 10 Day Average True Ranges continue to contract…Though this could be a temporary occurrence, remain disciplined and adjust price targets accordingly.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2106.50; LOD Range Projection: 2083.00; CD3 Max Penetration Level: 2108.00; CD3 Max Violation Level: 2072.25; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2086.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2096.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2110.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 15.32
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to hold any pullback to 2091 SPOT, then clear and convert 2099.25 to upper support for continued price rally targeting 2101.25 – 2103.25 STATX Zone. Upper Targets measure 2106.60 – 2110.00 zone.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2091 SPOT would be initial Sign of Weakness (SOW), which would open door for continued decline targeting 2088 – 2086 zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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