It’s been a busy June for Janet Yellen. Central bank watchers will hear from the Fed chief for the fourth time this month when she presents her semiannual testimony on monetary policy before Congress today and tomorrow. The FOMC left rates unchanged when officials met last week, but Yellen’s comments will be closely watched to see whether a July rate hike still remains an option, as well as potential financial stability risks of a Brexit.
In Asia, Japan +1.3% to 16169. Hong Kong +0.8% to 20668. China -0.4% to 2879. India -0.2% to 26813.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.7%. Frankfurt +0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude -0.7% to $49.61. Gold -0.7% to $1282.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.68%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Average True Range (10) has climbed back to its historical norm of 19 handles as volatility has increased ahead of the upcoming Brexit vote on Thursday. Markets rallied in prior session as fears lessened of a “yes (exit) vote”.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Having hit 2092.50 range target yesterday, price progressively sold down lower to reach 2070 handle which is the Average Decline Target measured from Cycle Day 3 high. In overnight trade price has held above this key level and rallied back to 2083 handle.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2093.50; LOD Range Projection: 2067.00; CD1 Max Penetration Level: 2107.75; CD1 Max Violation Level: 2058.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2040.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2068.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2095.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 19.08
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above 2070 handle, THEN expectation is for continued move higher to retest 2086 – 2092 zone.
Scenario 2: Violation of 2070 handle potentially creates a sell condition which targets 2067 – 2062 zone for renewed buy response.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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