Enough with the surveys and polls, traders appear to be in “wait and see” mode as equities hold steady ahead of a closely watched Brexit vote. “Anyone that wants to call this referendum with confidence is extremely foolish,” said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University. “The contest is very close to 50-50.” Politicians on both sides of the debate will be making their last arguments today ahead of polling stations opening tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. London time.
Just in case there was still anybody holding out for a July rate hike, Janet Yellen quashed that idea yesterday in her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Mostly repeating the memes from the recent FOMC policy meeting and her press conference, Yellen cited “considerable uncertainty” about the economic outlook, and the potential for a Brexit vote to shake up the markets. She testifies again today, this time before the House Financial Services Committee.
In Asia, Japan -0.6% to 16066. Hong Kong +0.6% to 20795. China +1% to 2906. India -0.2% to 26766.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude +1.1% to $50.38. Gold -0.4% to $1267.50.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.69%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Yellen delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $13B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $34B, 7-Year Note Auction
Quiet Narrow Range Day (NRD) held the market’s in check yesterday as testimony by Janet Yellen and count-down to Brexit vote has most traders /investors in a holding pattern. This of course makes for shitty intra-day trading, but that’s we get get sometimes…It’s all part of the game. As we like to say in aviation while flying: “Hours of boredom and moments of stark terror”
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…With NRD yesterday potential remains or is it Bremains to rally higher during this cycle…Upper targets are clustered within a tight zone between 2096 – 2097.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2096.50; LOD Range Projection: 2065.50; CD2 Max Penetration Level: 2096.50; CD2 Max Violation Level: 2062.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2074.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2074.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2097.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 19.33
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price converts PH (2086.00), THEN upside projects 2090 – 92 zone followed by 2095 – 2097 upper target zone.
Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts CD1 Low (2074.00), THEN levels to be mindful of are 2070.25…2065.50…2062.00.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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