A recovery is taking shape across the globe after a record $3T in market cap was wiped off the board in just two trading days and sterling fell to its lowest level in over 30 years. Hopes of a more coordinated central bank response to support the financial markets and firmer oil prices are helping stocks claw back some of their losses following the Brexit battering. The mostly sideways year for the Dow and S&P is still negative, down 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively.
In Asia, Japan +0.1% to 15323. Hong Kong -0.3% to 20172. China +0.6% to 2913. India +0.5% to 26525.
In Europe, at midday, London +2.5%. Paris +2.5%. Frankfurt +2.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +1.1%. S&P +1%. Nasdaq +1%. Crude +2.6% to $47.54. Gold -1% to $1311.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.48%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Markets continued selling down to start the week as fears of an EU unraveling becoming uncontrollable kept investors/traders in “risk-off” mode. Following the initial shock wave of the Brexit vote, markets will find a natural balance zone, as valuation adjustments will dictate the new price range.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price hit and exceeded violation levels in prior session and has since stabilized in overnight trade. Odds favor a relief rally which should take price back above CD1 Low (1999.00) producing a Positive 3 Day Rally, albeit a rather poor quality rally.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2012.00; LOD Range Projection: 1979.00; CD3 Max Penetration Level: 2032.25; CD3 Max Violation Level: 1968.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 1999.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2048.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2041.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 29.92
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above 1988.50 “key marker”, THEN initial objective is to push higher to 2008 handle and above CD1 Low (1999.00). Continued strength would target 2015 – 2020 STATX Zone and prior high (2022.50).
Scenario 2: Currently price is above CD1 Low (1999.00) in overnight trade…Violation of this level potentially opens door for retest of CD2 Low (1981.50). Extreme low projection zone is between 1974.75 – 1968.50 STATX Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN