The final big chunk of data this week will come at 8:30 a.m. ET when May’s nonfarm payrolls are released by the Labor Department. U.S. job gains likely remained moderate at 158,000 due to a strike at Verizon (NYSE:VZ), but an anticipated drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9% should indicate underlying labor strength is still intact. A strong figure will further heighten expectations for a June rate hike, which Janet Yellen said last week would be appropriate in the “coming months” if economic conditions were met.
In Asia, Japan +0.5% to 16642. Hong Kong +0.4% to 20947. China +0.5%to 2939. India flat at 26,843 .
In Europe, at midday, London +1%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude flat at $49.17. Gold +0.1% to $1213.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 1.80%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
3:45 Fed’s Evans: U.S. Economic and Monetary Policy
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 International Trade
9:45 PMI Services Index
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
12:30 PM Fed’s Brainard: U.S. Economic and Monetary Policy
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
Failure to clear Cycle Day 2 high early is session signaled a sell condition as price traded lower in the morning session, whereby responsive buyers stepped-in to “buy the dip” at 2086 – 88 support zone outlined in prior DTS Briefing 6.2.16.
Strong upside reversal unfolded during afternoon session driving price higher to reach 2103.25 projected STATX Level outlined in Scenario 1 of prior report.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for some type of decline to unfold, though current upside price momentum may continue to push higher before the next decline begins. Also, Non-Farm Payroll Report could be a “wild-card” for direction.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2116.50; LOD Range Projection: 2090.00; CD1 Max Penetration Level: 2113.50; CD1 Max Violation Level: 2074.25; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2086.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2095.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2110.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 14.90
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price closed near HOD (2104.25)…IF cleared and converted, THEN further upside projects 2107.25 – 2109.25 STATX Zone. Average 3 Day Cycle Target remains open at 2110.00…with extremes 2113.50 – 2116.50 respectively.
Scenario 2: Initial sign of weakness would be failure to hold bid above 2098.25 Central Pivot. Layered downside levels include: 2096.75 – 2095.25 3 Day Central Pivot Zone, followed by 2093.75. ATR Range Projection measures 2090.00.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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