The stakes are high as Janet Yellen prepares to take the stage in Philadelphia this afternoon following a shock non-farm payrolls report on Friday that sent the dollar tumbling. Investors will be looking to see whether Yellen, who recently said she expects interest rates to rise “in the coming months”, sticks to her current tune. The event will also offer the last insight into Fed thinking before a media blackout takes effect ahead of the June 14-15 monetary policy meeting.
In Asia, Japan -0.4% to 16580. Hong Kong +0.4% to 21030. China -0.2% to 2934. India -0.2% to 26777.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.9%. Paris flat. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +1% to $49.11. Gold +0.1% to $1243.50.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.72%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
2:15 Fed’s Rosengren speech
8:30 Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
10:00 Labor market condition index
12:30 PM TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM Janet Yellen speech
2:00 PM Janet Yellen in a discussion with Fed’s Harker
Friday was Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price tested and failed to clear and convert prior high…As such the decline began as NFP Report acted as the catalyst. Price sold down to Violation Levels at which time a reversal rally began closing back near neutral levels for the session.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…A good part of this Cycle’s Rally is in place, which may make for a potentially confusing trade session. Price is hovering within multi-day balance zone at 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (2093.75 – 2097.25).
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2109.00; LOD Range Projection: 2087.50; CD2 Max Penetration Level: 2113.50; CD2 Max Violation Level: 2076.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2082.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2095.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2106.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 15.07
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds at or above 2095.50 3D Central Pivot, initial objective will be to test PH (2106.00)…Successful conversion of this level opens door for continued rally targeting 2109 – 2113.50 zone.
Scenario 2: Any rally attempt that fails to convert PH (2106.00) keeps price contained within sideways price range. Violation and conversion of 2095.50, opens door to retest 2088 – 2086 lower edge of range. Breakdown through this zone targets 2083 down to 2076.50 extremes.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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