Trade Strategy 7.11.18

Markets
 
It’s another down day for stocks across the globe after the Trump administration raised the stakes in its trade war with China, saying it would slap 10% tariffs on an extra $200B worth of Chinese imports. The new list appears to target Beijing’s important manufacturing export industries, going after electronics, textiles, metal components and auto parts. Food and personal sectors are also set to be affected, as well as beauty goods and makeup products.
 
In Asia, Japan -1.2%. Hong Kong -1.3%. China -1.8%. India +0.1%
In Europe, at midday, London -1.5%. Paris -1.2%. Frankfurt -1.3%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.9%. S&P -0.8%. Nasdaq -1%. Crude -0.7% to $73.60. Gold -0.4% to $1250.70. Bitcoin +0.7% to $6349. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 2.84%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Producer Price Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 Wholesale Trade
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $22B, 10-Year Note Auction
3:30 PM Fed’s Williams Speech

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…After fulfilling Cycle objectives in prior session, prices have hit the skids in overnight trade retreating back to CD1 Low levels. No major damage has been done to current uptrend conditions, so view current trade action from lens of normal ebbs n flows of supply and demand.

Market Bias: Short-term: Bullish

CD3 Range High = 2788.50          CD3 Range Low = 2764.50          CD3 Range Avg = 29.00 

Scenario 1: IF price holds above 2770 handle, THEN recovery bounce targets 2785 prior settlement.

Scenario 2: IF price fails to clear and convert 2780 to support and subsequently violates and converts 2770 to resistance, THEN further downside measures 2757.50 – 2754.50 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2789.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2763.75; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2761.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2773.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2793.00; 10 Day Average True Range 23.00; VIX: 13.61

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…After fulfilling Cycle objectives in prior session, prices have hit the skids in overnight trade retreating back to CD1 Low levels. No major damage has been done to current uptrend conditions, so view current trade action from lens of normal ebbs n flows of supply and demand.

Market Bias: Short-term: Bullish

CD3 Range High = 7256.00          CD3 Range Low = 7164.50          CD3 Range Avg = 108.00

Scenario 1: IF price holds above 7220 handle, THEN recovery bounce targets 7273.00 prior settlement.

Scenario 2: IF price fails to clear and convert 7253.00 to support and subsequently violates and converts 7220 to resistance, THEN further downside measures 7189.50 – 7164.50 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7287.75; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7189.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7138.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7253.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7294.75; 10 Day Average True Range: 83.25; VIX: 13.61

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN