The S&P 500 has climbed back over a record it set more than a year ago, capping a stop-start recovery that has been one of the most uneven and uncertain in recent memory. The rally, which on Monday took the benchmark past its previous all-time high of 2,134.72 set in May 2015, was derailed at various points by plunging oil prices, currency devaluations in China and most recently the U.K. vote to leave the EU. Can it keep going?
In Asia, Japan +2.5% to 16096. Hong Kong +1.7% to 21225. China +1.8% to 3049. India +0.7% to 27808.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +1.7%. Frankfurt +1.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.6%. Crude +2.1% to $45.70. Gold -0.3% to $1352.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +5 bps to 1.48%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:45 Fed’s Bullard speech
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 Wholesale Trade
1:00 PM Results of $20B, 10-Year Note Auction
10:30 PM Fed’s Mester speech
Market’s continued upside momentum reaching and exceeding Penetration Levels in prior session. Buyers continue to flow in each tic of a new high, so until the last buyer has bought expectation is for grind higher. Key support is now marked at 2128 handle for initial sign of weakness (SOW).
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Potential exists for a decline (pullback), but until there is a new SOW, shorting momentum is a tough game.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2153.00; LOD Range Projection: 2117.00; CD1 Max Penetration Level: 2147.00; CD1 Max Violation Level: 2104.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2081.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2110.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2105.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 24.58.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2136.75), THEN primary objective is 2139.25 STATX Level. CD1 Penetration Level is 2147.00
Scenario 2: Price is currently trading above PH (2136.75)…Violation and conversion of this level would suggest that buyers are fulfilled and potential increases for a decline beginning. Further conversion of 2128 handle would confirm a short-term tradable high.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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