Expectations are running high that Governor Mark Carney could shave 25 basis points off the Bank of England’s base rate today and/or boost its bond-buying program to ward off a Brexit recession. Sterling is rallying ahead of the announcement, holding above $1.32, while world equities trade higher. An interest rate cut to 0.25% would be the BoE’s first after seven steady years and represent an unprecedented low in the central bank’s 322-year history.
In Asia, Japan +1% to 16385. Hong Kong +1.1% to 21561. China -0.2% to 3054. India +0.5% to 27942.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.9%. Paris +1%. Frankfurt +1.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.8%. S&P +0.8%. Nasdaq +0.7%. Crude +1.2% to $45.29. Gold -1% to $1329.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 1.5%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Producer Price Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Fed’s Bullard speech
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:15 Fed’s Lockhart speech
1:15 PM Fed’s George: U.S. Economy
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
7:00 PM Fed’s Kaplan: Monetary Policy
Market’s paused to consolidate recent gains as Cycle Day 2 unfolded in perfect fashion holding above 2139 support highlighted in prior DTS Report 7.13.16. In overnight trade action price vaulted in response to reports that BOE is prepared to cut interest rate and/or increase bond buying to soften any potential negative fallout from Brexit.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has secured the Average 3 Day Rally trading through 2166.25 and STATX Zone. Having fulfilled upside objectives, question is: Has the last buyer bought? If so, then potential exists that a decline may begin in earnest. We will continue to give Bull the benefit until there is a confirmed sign of weakness.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2163.00; LOD Range Projection: 2147.25; CD3 Max Penetration Level: 2161.50; CD3 Max Violation Level: 2128.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2128.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2138.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2166.25; 10 Day Average True Range: 20.30
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2152.25) THEN upside objectives are 2161.50 through 2166.50. Note: All of these objectives have been fulfilled in overnight trade.
Scenario 2: First Sign of Weakness (SOW) would be price failing to hold firm bid above PH (2152.25). Prior session range is anticipated to act as support buffer if retested. Violation of this zone would shift trade dynamics in favor of Bears and profit-taking.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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