The greenback is at a four-month high against a basket of currencies, bolstered by strong U.S. data and growing expectations the Fed may raise rates before the end of the year. The dollar index is up 0.2% at 97.271, its highest level since March 10. Fed funds futures rates now suggest a 40% chance of a rate hike in December, compared with less than 20% a few weeks ago.
In Asia, Japan -0.3% to 16682. Hong Kong +1% to 21882. China -0.3% to 3028. India +0.5% to 27916.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +1.2%. Frankfurt +1.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +0.3% to $45.59. Gold -0.5% to $1325.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.57%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Not much new insight to yesterday’s comments as tightening ranges and below average volumes is the current action (or lack of)…Bears tried hard to orchestrate a selling coup, but in the end they failed as price is bouncing higher in overnight trade.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Failure of sellers to drive price lower sets up potential rally higher. It would take a concerted effort to violate and convert 2152 – 54 zone to resistance before any meaningful decline can develop.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 2166 handle to upper support, THEN upside objective targets 2170 – 2173 zone. Three-Day Average Cycle Target remains 2179.25.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2152 – 54 zone would be first Sign of Weakness (SOW)…IF this occurs, THEN lower levels to be mindful of are: 2149…2145 – 2142 STATX Zone. Average Decline on CD1 measures 2137.50.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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