Since crude prices hit a year-high above $52 a barrel in June they have slipped almost 20%, leaving them on the cusp of a new bear market. EIA data on Wednesday unexpectedly showed a 1.7M barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories vs. what had been steady declines in previous weeks. “The improvement in oil fundamentals remains fragile and continues to feature large offsetting forces,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note overnight, but predicted oil prices to remain in the $45-$50 range until mid-2017.
In Asia, Japan -1.1% to 16477. Hong Kong -0.2% to 22174. China +0.1% to 2994. India +0.7% to 28208.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt flat.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.2% to $41.82. Gold +0.9% to $1347.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.5%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $28B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
“The Song Remains The Same”…Led Zeppelin Even as the FED keeps interest rates unchanged. Some intra-day volatility has created decent trade opportunities but has not moved the needle of Average True Range, which is currently 13.35.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Norm is for some magnitude decline, but with the current multi-day range showing no particular direction bias, we simply get more of the same.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price penetrates and converts 2168 to upper support, THEN upside potential measures 2174.50 – 2179.50.
Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 2152 to lower resistance, THEN potential downside measures 2146.50 down through 2135.50.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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