Trade Strategy 7.29.30

Markets

S&P 500 futures advanced 0.2% overnight as traders awaited the Fed’s latest policy decision.

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Source: https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-cfds

Economic Calendar

8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM Chairman Press Conference

Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

The central bank is expected to keep interest rates at near zero to support the economy still struggling with the coronavirus pandemic, while Jerome Powell will deliver a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

Oil prices settled mixed Tuesday, with U.S. crude losing more than 1% on worries about a likely build in domestic crude stockpiles last week amid an explosion in new coronavirus cases in the United States and other world hotspots.

Source: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-mixed-tuesday-ahead-of-stockpile-data-2244167

S&P 500 (ES)

***Written 7 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to Mr. TopStep’s Opening Print publication.

Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): 3 Day Positive Cycle Statistics were fulfilled as price attempted and failed twice to clear CD2 High. This “double-failure” set up the 2 pm “shake n bake” reversal, which took the price lower into the closing bell. Market on Close Sell Imbalance of $1.6B capped the session, with a range of 38.75 handles and 1.358M contracts exchanged.

Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Late day sell-down in prior session settled price at our 2-day Line in Sand (3213) Level. Normal for a CD1 is for some magnitude decline with average measuring 3181. We then have two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 3213, initially targeting 3223 – 3233 zone.

2.) Price sustains an offer below 3213, initially targeting 3203 – 3193 zone.

P -VA High = 3235       P – VA Low = 3221        P – POC = 3228

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2020 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3249; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3184; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3218; 10 Day Average True Range  35; VIX: 25

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day (CD1) Price has fulfilled CD1 average decline at 10515 level, where buyers stepped-in and rallied price back to previous POC (10600). As such we have two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

P – VA High = 10648       P – VA Low = 10570         P – POC = 10600

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 10575, THEN initial upside estimate targets 10600 – 10635 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 10575, THEN initial downside estimate targets 10540 – 10515 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2020 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 10780; LOD ATR Range Projection: 10348; 3 Day Central Pivot: 10550; 10 Day Average True Range: 226; VIX: 25

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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