Trade Strategy 7.31.18

Markets
 
In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong -0.5%. China +0.3%. India +0.3%
In Europe, at midday, London +0.7%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.1%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude -0.6% to $69.70. Gold -0.3% to $1227.30. Bitcoin -2.7% to $7946. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 2.95%
 
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

FOMC meeting begins
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 Employment Cost Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…The decline in prior session fulfilled lower target projections (2800 – 2795) before stabilizing. Stronger bids then took control as price is staging a recovery rally during overnight trade. Initial resistance is marked at 2810 – 13.50 zone for which bulls must convert to support.

Market Bias: Bullish

CD2 Range High = 2825.50          CD2 Range Low = 2787.75         CD2 Range Avg = 24.75

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2805.25, THEN initial objective is to convert 2810 – 2813.50 zone to upper support.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2805.25 with subsequent violation of 2802.75, THEN downside targets test of 2798.25 CD1 Low.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2824.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2789.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2798.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2824.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2829.50; 10 Day Average True Range 21.75; VIX: 13.75

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…The decline in prior session surpassed lower target projections  before stabilizing. Stronger bids then took control as price is attempting a recovery rally during overnight trade. Bulls must hold bid above prior close 7208 and convert to solid support.

Market Bias: Bullish

CD2 Range High = 7280.25         CD2 Range Low = 7172.50          CD2 Range Avg = 89.25

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7208.00, THEN initial objective is to convert 7220 – 7230  zone to upper support.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7208.00 with subsequent violation of 7198.00, THEN downside targets test of 7166.75 CD1 Low.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7306.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7109.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7166.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7328.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7382.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 115.25; VIX: 13.75

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN