Trade Strategy 7.6.16

Markets

By definition, minutes from central bank policy meetings are backward-looking, and that is precisely why the transcript from the Fed’s June gathering – to be released at 2 p.m. ET – will matter more than usual for investors. Since the conclave took place a week before the U.K.’s historic referendum, which briefly threw the financial markets into disarray, the minutes will provide extra clues to what the Fed felt about the economy prior to the Brexit vote. Other factors to watch: rate projections, a hiring slowdown, global forces and inflation.

In Asia, Japan -1.9% to 15379. Hong Kong -1.2% to 20495. China +0.4% to 3017. India -0.4% to 27167.
In Europe, at midday, London -1%. Paris -2.2%. Frankfurt -2.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.6%. S&P -0.7%. Nasdaq -0.8%. Crude -1.2% to $46.02. Gold +1.3% to $1376.50.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 1.33%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 International Trade
8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 Daniel Tarullo speech

PTG Trading

This Cycle’s decline which began on Monday continued into prior session as trend day down from opening bell carried the day past lower targets. Market on Close (MOC) Buy Imbalance of $1.2B stemmed the decline. In overnight trade price bounced higher but found resistance and was rejected at 2085.50 Central Pivot. Price is currently trading below prior low (2072.50).

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…This Cycle is in jeopardy of a failure of positive cycle unless price can recover back above 2094.00 CD 1 Low.

Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract

HOD Range Projection: 2099.00; LOD Range Projection: 2053.50; CD3 Max Penetration Level: 2098.00; CD3 Max Violation Level: 2061.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2094.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2092.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2117.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 32.10

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is currently trading below PL (2072.50)…First sign of strength (SOW) would be clearing and converting this level to support. Unless Bulls can then convert 2078 and 2086 to support, Bears have advantage.

Scenario 2: Failure convert PL (2072.50), keeps Bear case intact with this current down swing. Primary target below is 2061 handle with secondary target 2053.50 if Bears can force long liquidation.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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