Markets
The Fed should be cautious in considering an interest rate increase due to lingering risks to the U.S. economy, New York Fed President William Dudley declared, describing Friday’s GDP growth figure of 1.2% as “sluggish.” Although he said it was “premature” to rule out monetary policy tightening in 2016, he added that negative shocks were more likely than positive ones due to the unknown fallout from Brexit, a strong dollar and because it was safer to delay a move with rates so low.
“The oil market is oversupplied now but there are expectations that there will be balance between demand and supply in the market,” Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said after a Reuters survey showed OPEC’s oil output this month was likely to reach its highest point in recent history. Today also marks the first day at the desk for OPEC’s new general secretary. Nigeria’s Mohammed Barkindo will be the first new top official at the cartel in almost a decade. Crude futures -1.4% to $41.04/bbl
In Asia, Japan +0.4% to 16636. Hong Kong +1.1% to 22129. China -0.9% to 2953. India -0.2% to 28003.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt flat.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude -1.4% to $41.04. Gold -0.2% to $1354.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.48%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
2:00 PM Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
PTG Trading
August begins new month where July exited…Low ranges, volatility and enthusiasm on investor/trader participation. Price has been in a consolidation phase for several days which will eventually lead to an expansion.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…There is room to push price higher to reach upper cycle targets, so we remain watchful for a valid range breakout to upside.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2181.50; LOD Range Projection: 2164.75; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2153.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2163.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2183.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 12.90
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price needs to hold solidly above 2166 handle and convert 2172 to upper support…Overnight trade has cleared 2172…now this must carry through the cash session for validation.
Scenario 2: Violation and reversal below 2166 – 2164 zone will add pressure to longs if they cannot hold bid…Should this unfold anticipate bear to press and challenge the lower edge of multi-day range…2152 – 54 zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN