The Fed should be cautious in considering an interest rate increase due to lingering risks to the U.S. economy, New York Fed President William Dudley declared, describing Friday’s GDP growth figure of 1.2% as “sluggish.” Although he said it was “premature” to rule out monetary policy tightening in 2016, he added that negative shocks were more likely than positive ones due to the unknown fallout from Brexit, a strong dollar and because it was safer to delay a move with rates so low.
“The oil market is oversupplied now but there are expectations that there will be balance between demand and supply in the market,” Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said after a Reuters survey showed OPEC’s oil output this month was likely to reach its highest point in recent history. Today also marks the first day at the desk for OPEC’s new general secretary. Nigeria’s Mohammed Barkindo will be the first new top official at the cartel in almost a decade. Crude futures -1.4% to $41.04/bbl
In Asia, Japan +0.4% to 16636. Hong Kong +1.1% to 22129. China -0.9% to 2953. India -0.2% to 28003.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt flat.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude -1.4% to $41.04. Gold -0.2% to $1354.70.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.48%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
August begins new month where July exited…Low ranges, volatility and enthusiasm on investor/trader participation. Price has been in a consolidation phase for several days which will eventually lead to an expansion.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…There is room to push price higher to reach upper cycle targets, so we remain watchful for a valid range breakout to upside.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price needs to hold solidly above 2166 handle and convert 2172 to upper support…Overnight trade has cleared 2172…now this must carry through the cash session for validation.
Scenario 2: Violation and reversal below 2166 – 2164 zone will add pressure to longs if they cannot hold bid…Should this unfold anticipate bear to press and challenge the lower edge of multi-day range…2152 – 54 zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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