Trade Strategy 8.11.16

Markets

The world will consume less oil next year than previously thought due to a “dimmer macroeconomic outlook,” the IEA said in its monthly oil market report. The energy watchdog expects global oil demand to grow by 1.2M barrels per day in 2017, a decrease of 100K bpd compared with last month’s forecast. Adding to the recent pressure on crude prices, EIA data on Wednesday showed a U.S. crude inventory build of 1.1M barrels last week, while Saudi Arabia said its output hit a record high in July.

In Asia, Japan -0.2% to 16735. Hong Kong +0.4% to 22581. China -0.5% to 3002. India +0.3% to 27859.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris +0.7%. Frankfurt +0.6%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude -0.3% to $41.58. Gold -0.1% to $1350.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.51%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Import/Export Prices
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $15B, 30-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

PTG Trading

“Houston…We Have Some Movement”…:Houston…Never Mind…It was a False Positive”….

Price did get a Cycle Day 1 decline as normally expected and “da Bears” got real excited and began pressing positions…Problem here is that they were not able to convert any key level to resistance.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price held 2166 Key Support which is approximately 10 Day ATR Range of ONLY 14 handles…Well below historical norms. Overnight trade has price back up 12 handles @ 2178 as Cycle Rally is back on track.

Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract

HOD Range Projection: 2183.50; LOD Range Projection: 2165.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2167.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2176.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2189.25; 10 Day Average True Range: 13.38

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is rallying off CD1 Low (2167.75)…Price will need to hold any pullback retest above 2172 – 2168 handles. Conversion of 2183.50 to upper support could springboard price higher to 2189 – 2193 zone.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert 2183.50 keeps price within recent range (2168 – 2183)…Violation of 2173 – 72 zone opens door for CD1 Low (2167.75) retest.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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