Inflation data is rivaling nonfarm payrolls in terms of market enthusiasm lately as Wall Street tries to gauge when the Federal Reserve will make its move to curb asset purchases. The debate over transitory vs. persistent will continue through today as data on the input side arrives before the bell.
The Labor Department releases the July PPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists are predicting a headline rise of 0.6% for the month, with the annual rate staying at 7.3%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to have risen 0.5% in July, with the year-over-year rate remaining at 5.6%.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Producer Price Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $27B, 30-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 as price consolidated above key support zone 4420 – 4424. Volumes continue to be relatively light as the “Dog Days of Summer” is on an extended vacation. Range was 22 handles on 971k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): 3 Day Cycle Statistic is firmly in-place, so we’ll mark today as “Wild-Card”. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4443, initially targets 4450 – 4455 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4443, initially targets 4430 – 4425 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4441 PVA Low Edge = 4435 Prior POC = 4436
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4461; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4419; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4429; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4450; 10 Day Average True Range 25; VIX: 16
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Nasdaq futures are currently trading within 2-day value zone (15045 – 14978) pre-RTH. Prior range was 156 handles on 474k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 15045 PVA Low Edge = 14978 Prior POC = 15020
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15020, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15046 – 15060 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15020, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14996 – 14978 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15115; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14903; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15060; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15096; 10 Day Average True Range: 132; VIX: 16
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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