Oil prices are edging up after U.S. crude broke below $40 per barrel in the prior session, but traders said fuel markets continue to be dogged by a production glut. “We got here on the back of excessive storage in crude oil and gasoline,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities. WTI settled 22% below its June peak Monday, meeting the common definition of a bear market.
In Asia, Japan -1.5% to 16391. Hong Kong closed. China +0.6% to 2971. India -0.1% to 27982.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -1.4%. Frankfurt -1.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +0.9% to $40.41. Gold +0.5% to $1366.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +5 bps to 1.54%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Bulls made an attempt in early overnight trade yesterday to push price above the key 2172 level, but failed to hold bid during cash session. As such sellers drove price lower to test 2161 – 2163 lower key price edge. Overnight trade price has bounced to 2171 and was rejected by sellers…Price once again has pushed lower to test 2157.75 low low projection.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for some type of decline…Failed attempts by buyers to push higher potentially weakens price structure, though it has not broken yet…Expectation is for continued back n forth until there is enough force to shift the recent neutral sentiment.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to hold above 2157 and clear and convert 2162 to support for chance of higher prices…Resistance is building between 2163 – 2171 zone. IF 2172 is converted to hard upper support, THEN upside is open to 2185.
Scenario 2: Price is currently in a down leg from 2172 key resistance…Violation and conversion of 2158 to lower resistance increases likelihood of lower prices. Average Decline on CD1 targets 2151.50…Recall that 2152 has been critical support level…Solid break of this level may force some long liquidation. Deep extremes measure down to 2144 Max Violation Level.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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