“We see Jackson Hole as the ‘ready’ warning and look for Chair Yellen to err on looking at the optimistic side” of the outlook, says UBS’s Drew Matus, though he doesn’t expect an actual move on rates by the Fed until December. Barclays’ Michael Gapen says a solid August employment report (due Sept. 2) means a September rate hike. If Yellen signals as such, it would be a surprise, as markets currently price in just about a 20% chance of a higher policy rate in September. The subject of Yellen’s talk is “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit,” and it’s due to start at 10:00 am ET.
In Asia, Japan -1.2% to 16360. Hong Kong +0.4% to 22909. China -0.2% to 9743. India -0.1% to 27499.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.3% to $47.19. Gold +0.4% to $1329.20.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.57%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Range trade was the theme of prior session as price failed to clear 2179.25 (CD1 Low)…It was only able to muster 2176 handle, which is 75% of ATR (10)…An already dismal 10.95.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal decline…Retest of 2168 handle would be critical test of bull/bear resolve…Clear and convert 2176 handle would be favorable for bulls. Summertime Friday is expected to be relatively quiet as many traders and portfolio managers remain on vacation.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Bulls need to convert 2176 handle to upper support for 1st Sign of Strength (SOW)…2179.25 (CD1 Low) continues to be an objective for Positive 3 Day Rally.
Scenario 2: Bears want to bury the bulls below 2168 handle…Today would be the day IF they can collectively force selling…Though they have a slight advantage past couple days, bulls resolve has been impressive.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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