The reversal in oil prices to $40 a barrel is rippling through equity and bond markets, reigniting concerns about deeply indebted companies and countries reliant on commodities. “Should oil slice through $40 towards $35, macroeconomic fears will pick up,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch. Before the sharp drop in crude this week, investment in some of the riskiest areas of financial markets had been gathering pace, as central bank stimulus programs pushed equities to record highs and yields in safer areas of the market to new lows.
In Asia, Japan -1.9% to 16083. Hong Kong -1.8% to 21739. China +0.2% to 2978. India -1% to 27697.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +1% to $39.88. Gold -0.2% to $1370.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.54%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 Treasury Refunding Quarterly Announcement
9:45 PMI Services Index
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
Failed attempt to breakout through 2172 (key resistance) lead to reversal and breakdown through 2152 (key support) in prior session as Cycle Day 1 played out perfectly, reaching lower target zone between 2144 – 2142 outline in prior DTS Report 8.2.16.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Having reached Violation Levels, expectation for at least a relief bounce with some consolidation today. About half the rally off CD1 Low is in place…as such, price may look to retest this low for security…Price will need to clear and convert 2156 handle for continuation of bounce.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds at or above 2141.50, THEN primary objective is to clear and convert 2156 handle to new support. Upside target zone is 2160 – 2165.
Scenario 2: Potential exists for a retest of 2141.50…Violation and conversion to lower resistance increases likelihood of further forced selling. Lower price projections are: 2138.36 down to 2129.50.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN