Trade Strategy 8.3.18

Markets
 
The latest snapshot of the U.S. labor market will be released this morning, with forecasts for 193,000 payrolls for July, a strong gain but less than June’s 213,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.9% from last month’s 4.0%, while wage growth likely advanced 2.7%, the same pace as June. Strong numbers would suggest the robust economy is helping the labor market weather trade tensions, allowing the Fed to raise rates again in September.
 
In Asia, Japan +0.1%. Hong Kong -0.1%. China -1%. India +1.1%
In Europe, at midday, London +0.7%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.4%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude -0.3% to $68.78. Gold -0.3% to $1216.10. Bitcoin -2.5% to $7344. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 2.98%
 
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 International Trade
9:45 PMI Services Index
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Early decline fulfilled CD1 downside price objectives, at which time this cycle rally began exceeding most optimistic price targets. Overnight trade is relatively quiet trading in a narrow range. Today being Market After Trend Day (MATD), expectation would be for back n fill consolidation with upside bias to absorb prior session’s gains.

Market Bias: Bullish

CD2 Range High = 2847.50          CD2 Range Low = 2807.25         CD2 Range Avg = 23.00

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2830.50, THEN upside targets 2834 – 2837 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price hold offer below 2830.50, THEN downside targets 2824 – 2821 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2848.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2809.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2791.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2817.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2821.50; 10 Day Average True Range 24.00; VIX: 12.11

Click Here

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Early decline fulfilled CD1 downside price objectives, at which time this cycle rally began exceeding most optimistic price targets. Overnight trade is relatively quiet trading in a narrow range. Today being Market After Trend Day (MATD), expectation would be for back n fill consolidation with upside bias to absorb prior session’s gains.

Market Bias: Bullish

CD2 Range High = 7431.00         CD2 Range Low = 7309.50          CD2 Range Avg = 51.75

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7392.75, THEN upside targets 7431.00 – 7470.50 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price hold offer below 7392.75, THEN downside targets 7349.25 – 7320.00 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7493.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7286.75; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7214.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7290.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7330.25; 10 Day Average True Range: 114.50; VIX: 12.11

Click Here

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN