Trade Strategy 8.9.17

Markets
 
North Korea is “carefully examining” a strike on the U.S. territory of Guam after President Trump warned of “fire and fury” in response to further threats from the regime. Intelligence reports are suggesting Pyongyang has successfully developed a “miniaturized nuclear weapon” and has “up to 60 nuclear weapons” in its arsenal. The geopolitical tensions have sent global equities into the red, while safe havens climb, including gold and the yen.
 
Oil is rising back towards $50 a barrel ahead of the EIA inventory report expected to show crude stocks dropping for a sixth week, although gains were capped by compliance doubts with OPEC-led supply cuts. Crude inventories last week fell by 7.84M barrels, but gasoline stocks rose unexpectedly, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.
 
In Asia, Japan -1.3%. Hong Kong -0.4%. China -0.2%. India -0.7%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -1.5%. Frankfurt -1.2%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude +0.6% to $49.44. Gold +0.8% to $1273. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 2.25%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar 

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Productivity and Costs
10:00 Wholesale Trade
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Fed’s Evans: Monetary Policy
1:00 PM Results of $20B, 10-Year Note Auction

PTG Trading

S&P e-mini (ES) achieved projected upside target of 2488 as well as downside range projection of 2467.30 outlined in prior DTS Briefing 8.8.17. Morning short cover squeeze followed by afternoon reversal created an bearish outside-reversal day.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Momentum has now shifted to bear-camp. If price fails to recover 2466 – 68 zone back to support, further downside is to be expected targeting 2453 – 2448 zone.

STAY NIMBLE and ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOPS.

Range Projections and Key Levels

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2470.35; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2459.15; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2472.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2474.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2490.61; 10 Day Average True Range: 11.35

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: September 2017 (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1:  Bulls will need to recover price back above 2466 – 68 to stem any further selling damage. IF successful, THEN target would be 2472 CD1 Low.

Scenario 2:  Momentum has shifted to bear-camp with additional downside targets 2456.81…2453.84 – 2448.50 cycle range low.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN