FOMC is expected to trim interest rates today for the second time in 2019, but the question is whether Jerome Powell will give markets what they want to hear regarding plans for future cuts. While economic data in the U.S. has been stronger than expected, the central bank is attempting to buy an insurance policy against slowing growth due to fallout from the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit and geopolitical tensions. Mid-cycle adjustment or second step in an easing cycle? Traders are holding their breath ahead of Powell’s presser, and accompanying dot plot, as U.S. stock index futures hug the flatline.
In Asia, Japan -0.2%. Hong Kong -0.1%. China +0.3%. India +0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.9% to $58.81. Gold -0.3% to $1509.20. Bitcoin +0.3% to $10186.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -4 bps to 1.77%
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
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Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2964.00. Average Range for CD1 is 37.50 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 20 = 44%
CD1 Range High = 3024.50 CD1 Range Low = 2984.50 CD1 Range Avg = 37.50
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 3000, THEN initial upside targets 3018 – 3021 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 3000, THEN initial downside targets 2990 – 2985 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2019 (U) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7765.00. Average Range for CD1 is 125.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 66%
CD1 Range High =7945.00 CD1 Range Low = 7960.00 CD1 Range Avg = 125.00
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7885, THEN initial upside targets 7922 – 7942 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7885, THEN initial downside targets 7865 – 7850 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2019 (U) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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