Markets
Excessive credit growth in China is signaling an increasing risk of a banking crisis in the next three years, according to the Bank of International Settlements’ quarterly review. The central bank of central bankers also called the recent equity rally “more stick than carrot,” but stopped short of warning of a bubble, with policy makers questioning whether market prices fully reflect potential risks.
OPEC and non-OPEC producers are close to reaching an output stabilizing deal, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro declared, a day after Iran welcomed any move aimed at market stability. OPEC members may even call an extraordinary meeting to discuss oil prices if they reach consensus at an informal gathering in Algiers this month, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said during a visit to Algeria.
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong +0.9% to 23550. China +0.8% to 3026. India +0.1% to 28634.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.4%. Paris +1.4%. Frankfurt +0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +1.3% to $44.17. Gold +0.5% to $1316.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 1.69%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
PTG Trading
Friday’s Session was textbook Cycle Day 1 with average decline reaching 2123 target…At which time the rally began into settlement. Overnight trade action has price continuing the rally reaching 2142 handle, which is Average 3 Day Cycle Rally Target.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has continued the rally from prior session reaching cycle target and penetration levels. Bulls continue to now dominate the action, so further strength above 2144 handle will continue to expand the range. Current 10 day Average True Range is now 24.30.
Range Projections and Key Levels
HOD Range Projection: 2156.00; LOD Range Projection: 2120.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2123.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2127.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2142.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 24.30
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price has rallied to cycle targets in overnight trade…To expand the rally, bulls will need to convert 2142 – 44 zone to upper support. IF this occurs, THEN upside potential measures 2148.50 – 2153.50 STATX Zone.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert 2142 – 44 zone to upper support keeps price contained within prior session range. Any pullback consolidation is expected to find sufficient responsive buyers between 2126.50 – 2130 pivot zone. Violation and conversion below CD1 Low (2123.00) squelches the bulls momentum.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN