U.S. futures are heading higher after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and lowered its forecasts. The Fed’s decision shouldn’t be interpreted as a lack of confidence in the economy, Janet Yellen said during her quarterly news conference, but gave a fairly strong indication that a hike will happen before 2016 is over. She also rejected the suggestion that the central bank bases its decisions on partisan politics.
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong +0.4% to 23759. China +0.5% to 3042. India +0.9% to 28773.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.2%. Paris +1.9%. Frankfurt +1.9%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +1.1% to $45.84. Gold +0.4% to $1336.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.64%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Price “coilation” (my word meaning: coiling) always leads to a breakout, which is what happened in prior session. Fed Policy Statement and Yellen’s comments seemed more dovish than hawkish, which has been recent guidance and as such buyers pushed price higher creating a short squeeze for those improperly positioned. Price reached 2157 handle which was our highest Statistical Extreme (STATX) projection.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Upside momentum remains intact but may fade early if the Fed’s shine dims quickly. First support marker is 2151.50, then 2146.75 Central Pivot. Upside projection for today measures 2166.50.
Range Projections and Key Levels
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above PH (2157.50), THEN initial upside objective is 2162.50, followed by 2166.50 STATX Zone.
Scenario 2: First Sign of Weakness (SOW) would be a reversal below PH( 2157.50), followed by violation and conversion of 2151.50 marker. IF this occurs, THEN lower projection measures 2146.75 Central Pivot.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN