Markets
The Fed-fuelled rally that catapulted equities out of the summer doldrums this week is showing some signs of fatigue. Despite the downward movement, there is plenty of Fedspeak on the calendar to keep investors busy for the rest of the day. Fed Presidents Patrick Harker, Loretta Mester and Dennis Lockhart are set to appear on a “Presidents’ Perspectives” panel, Neel Kashkari will host a Twitter Q&A and Robert Kaplan will give his post-Fed meeting views at a speech in Houston.
Saudi Arabia has offered to lower its oil production if Iran agrees to cap output this year at its current level of 3.6M bpd. The proposal was made earlier this month, sources told Reuters, and would be a major compromise ahead of talks in Algeria next week. Ironic? The last two OPEC meetings held in the country – in 2004 and 2008 – led to unexpected production cuts to prop up prices.
In Asia, Japan -0.3% to 16754. Hong Kong -0.3% to 23686. China -0.3% to 3033. India -0.4% to 28668.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%%. Nasdaq -0.1%%. Crude +0.2% to $46.40. Gold -0.3% to $1341.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.61%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
12:20 PM Regional Fed Presidents panel
12:30 PM Fed’s Kaplan speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
PTG Trading
Markets continued to rally post Fed reaching 2166.50 CD2 Max Penetration Level where price consolidated throughout the cash session. Overnight trade has price drifting lower as buyers have pulled away…Initial support zone is marked 2158 – 2160. Fialure to hold opens door to deeper corrective move.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Having reached upper maximum cycle price targets, the next decline can begin at any time.
Range Projections and Key Levels
HOD Range Projection: 2191.50; LOD Range Projection: 2141.25; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2126.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2148.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2147.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 28.23
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to hold above 2162 handle and convert 2168 to new upper support to continue the current upswing. Upper target measures 2175 – 2178 STATX Zone.
Scenario 2: Initial Sign of Weakness (SOW) would be a violation of 2162 handle with confirmation below 2158 – 2160 key support zone. IF this occurs, THEN deeper downside may unfold targeting 2154.75 – 2152.50 lower STATX Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN