Markets
Prospects are dim for a deal among OPEC countries to cut output or freeze production, but who knows what could happen during the final day of the International Energy Forum. Despite the usual disagreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia, crude has turned positive, as traders seem to get used to the concept of “no deal” from Algiers. The rivalry could still have broader implications for the oil market, which already witnessed the failure of an OPEC production freeze in April.
In Asia, Japan -1.3% to 16465. Hong Kong +0.2% to 23619. China -0.3% to 2987. India +0.2% to 28292.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.8%. Paris +1.1%. Frankfurt +1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.9% to $45.07. Gold -0.1% to $1329.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.58%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Durable Goods
10:00 Yellen delivers semi-annual testimony
10:15 Fed’s Bullard speech
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $13B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $28B, 7-Year Note Auction
1:30 PM Fed’s Evans speech
4:35 PM Fed’s Mester: Economic Outlook
7:15 PM Fed’s George speech
PTG Trading
Early test of Cycle Day 1 Low (2136.75) lead to textbook Cycle Day 2 Rally reaching upper target levels. In overnight trade price has extended gains to 2158 achieving the Three-Day Cycle Rally Target.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Current momentum favors Bulls above 2146 handle. Upper target zone (2157 – 2160) has been touched in overnight trade. Bulls will need to power through this zone to expand the current rally. Sign of Weakness (SOW) would be converting 2146 handle to lower resistance.
Range Projections and Key Levels
HOD Range Projection: 2167.00; LOD Range Projection: 2138.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2136.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2150.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2158.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 19.88
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above 2146 and converts PH (2154.00) to upper support, THEN upside expansion targets measure 2157 – 2160 STATX Zone, followed by 2167.00 HOD Range Projection.
Scenario 2: Initial Sign of Weakness (SOW) would be violation and conversion of 2146 handle to lower resistance. IF this unfolds, THEN lower levels to be mindful of are: 2143.50…2141.00…2138.00…2136.75.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN