Shares across the globe have started the week in a positive mood after Friday’s muted U.S. jobs report fueled expectations the Fed may refrain from raising interest rates later this month. “The unemployment report was not weak enough to completely undermine the Fed’s hawkish bias since Jackson Hole. It was probably enough to see fence-sitters on the FOMC wait until December before voting to hike interest rates,” wrote analyst Jasper Lawler at CMC Markets https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en/news-and-analysis/european-stocks-to-open-higher-before-uk-services-pmi
Oil continues to trade higher in the session, adding to yesterday’s rally as other producers welcomed an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia to stabilize the crude market. However, prices have drawn back from Monday’s highs amid skepticism as to whether the two oil giants will be able to reach an output deal. According to Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, “Freezing production is one of the preferred possibilities, but it does not have to happen specifically today.”
In Asia, Japan +0.3% to 17801. Hong Kong +0.6% to 23787. China +0.6% to 3090. India +1.6% to 28978.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +1.1% to $44.93. Gold +0.7% to $1335.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.6%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
9:45 PMI Services Index
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:00 Labor market condition index
12:30 PM TD Ameritrade IMX
2:00 PM Gallup US ECI
8:30 PM Fed’s Williams: Economic Outlook
S&P 500 E-mini (ES) begins the week with familiar pattern of Pop, Drop and Sideways price action following relatively benign employment report last week. Larger patterns suggest buying absorption has been taking place during recent weeks. With traders and money managers returning from vacations, overall trade is anticipated to progressively increase in volume and volatility.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price will need to stay above CD1 Low (2175.00) to keep recent price strength intact. Overall price remains within a larger trading range with no clear sign to resolution in either direction.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above CD1 Low (2175.00) and converts 2182.25 to upper support THEN upside potential measures 2188.00 – 2191.50. Three-Day Cycle Rally Target is 2195.00.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of CD1 Low (2175.00) would be initial Sign of Weakness (SOW) opening the door to test 2169.50 – 2167 STATX Zone and LOD Projection.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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