Trade Strategy 9.7.18

Markets
 
Today’s jobs data will be the last employment report before the Fed’s next meeting on Sept. 26, at which the central bank is slated to raise interest rates for the third time this year. The snapshot is expected to show 191K jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8% from 3.9% a month earlier. Average hourly earnings likely increased 0.2%, down from 0.3% in July, putting the gain at 2.7% Y/Y.
 
In Asia, Japan -0.8%. Hong Kong flat. China +0.4%. India +0.4%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.3%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude flat at $67.74. Gold +0.2% to $1206.50. Bitcoin -1.9% to $63.75. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.89%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 Fed’s Rosengren: “What Are the Consequences of Long Spells of Low Interest Rates?”
9:00 Fed’s Mester: “What Are the Consequences of Long Spells of Low Interest Rates?”
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
10:45 Fed’s Rosengren Speech on Saturday

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price continued its decline in prior session fulfilling downside CD2 extension target zone between 2870 – 2865. Actual LOD was 2868, so direct hit. Once this level found sufficient buyer to absorb sellers, the relief rally was able to recover CD1 Low (2877.50) successfully notching a Positive 3 Day Cycle. albeit barely. NQ was not so lucky.

CD3 Range High = 2898.75          CD3 Range Low = 2859.00          CD3 Range Avg = 24.75 

Scenario 1: IF price can hold bid above 2875, THEN upside potential measures 2882 – 84 zone where there was prior resistance.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2875, THEN downside test of prior low (2868) comes into play. Violation and conversion of this level opens trap door targeting 2862 – 2858 zone, followed by 2856 – 2858 violation extension zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2890.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2862.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2877.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2889.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2906.00; 10 Day Average True Range 19.00; VIX: 14.94

Click Here

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…NAZ continued its decline as FAANG stocks have been in liquidation-mode from large institutions and hedge funds. Market is effectively re-pricing merchandise to reflect current sentiment and an over-crowded trade. 

Price is currently trading below its CD1 Low (7503.25). Unless it can recover this level, it will be a failed 3 Day Cycle, which is a bearish signal. Note: On shortened holiday trade weeks, we like to give the cycle one alternate day to achieve positive cycle. But if by next trade session CD1 low cannot be recovered, it will be failed cycle.

CD3 Range High = 7525.75         CD3 Range Low = 7365.50          CD3 Range Avg = 97.75

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7440, THEN initial upside targets 7462 – 7276 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7440, THEN downside test of prior low (7407.75) would be anticipated. Violation and conversion of this level opens trap door measuring 7380.50 – 7364.50 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7514.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7402.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7503.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7557.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7616.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 86.50; VIX: 14.94

Click Here

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN