As Mario Draghi prepares to face the cameras today, analysts have rarely been so divided over what to expect from the ECB president. Officials signaled they were ready to unleash fresh stimulus to support the eurozone immediately following Brexit, but economic data since has been mixed and Draghi hasn’t spoken publicly for seven weeks. One thing is clear: The bank is still far from hitting its inflation goal of just below 2%, a target it has missed for more than three years.
Oil prices are marching higher after U.S. industry data showed a large drawdown in crude stocks, reflecting the temporary impact of an Atlantic storm. Inventories plunged by more than 12M barrels last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. A similar report from the Energy Information Administration today would mark the largest one week fall in crude stocks excluding the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve since April 1985.
In Asia, Japan -0.3% to 16958. Hong Kong +0.8% to 23919. China +0.1% to 3095. India +0.4% to 29045.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris flat. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +1.9% to $46.37. Gold +0.3% to $1353.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.54%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
****Today begins Contract Rollover to December (Z) from September (U). Please make necessary chart adjustments to reflect the new front month. Discount is approximately 7 handles.
****We will continue to trade ESU contract today and tomorrow…Monday will begin trading the new ESZ contract.
Price again failed to carry higher in prior session as early attempts met with stiff resistance from sellers. Shorts tried to take advantage of this condition and press the lows in search of a breakdown, but were not able to produce the break. As such, bulls came roaring back to close price near the upper edge of range. Bulls continue to have control as the 3 Day Central Pivot is currently in a strong uptrend condition.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for some type of decline, though recent attempts to produce any meaningful selling has been rejected by the bulls. Average Decline Projection target should it develop measures 2166 handle (ESZ).
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (Z) Contract
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to clear PH to keep current upside alive for bulls…Targets remain unchanged at 2197.50 – 2200 zone.
Scenario 2: Bears still need to produce a violation below 2175 – 2173 zone to get any meaningful decline…Today (CD1) would be a good opening for them to get it done.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN