Trade Strategy 12.12.17

Markets
 
The FOMC will gather today for its last policy meeting of 2017, which many expect will result in interest rates getting bumped up by a quarter point on Wednesday. The wild card for the markets, however, is what the Fed says and does with regard to tax legislation. While many expect the central bank to retain its three-rate-hike forecast for next year, some feel the Fed could add a fourth rate hike based on the improving economy and stimulus from tax cuts.
 
In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -0.6%. China -1.3%. India -0.7%
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.1%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude +0.6% to $58.33. Gold -0.1% to $1245.20. Bitcoin +0.6% to $16792. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.39%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

FOMC meeting begins
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 Producer Price Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
1:00 PM Results of $12B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget

S&P 500 (ES)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…As expected, CD1 decline was below normal as buyers took control from open and slowly bought throughout the session closing on high of session. Price is marginally higher in overnight trade as bears have all but given up for 2017. 

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Early volley during opening range between bull n bears lead to breakout higher, closing near high of session. Technology has been one of the strongest sectors during 2017 and it appears that bulls want to use that strength to push even higher into year-end.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES)

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2685.30; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2646.20; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2652.25 3 Day Central Pivot: 2650.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2675.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 21.08; VIX: 9.31

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2018 (ESH) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2664.50), THEN expansion targets measure 2672.50 CD2 Penetration Level.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts VPOC (2659.00) to lower resistance, THEN downside targets PL (2654.50). 

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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