Markets
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $61B, 5-Year Note Auction
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Textbook Taylor CD1 Decline unfolded as expected, with price driving lower to fulfill average decline and violation levels respectively. Once a “secure low” was in-place, this cycle’s rally began, pushing price higher to the CD1 average range target. Range was 64.75 handles on 1.723M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Initial cycle targets have been fulfilled, so normal expectation for this CD2 is for some price consolidation to absorb recent activity. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3852, initially targets 3859 – 3861 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3852, initially targets 3839 – 3836 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3851 PVA Low Edge = 3826 Prior POC = 3846
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3856; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3822; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3836; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3852.50; 10 Day Average True Range 35; VIX: 23
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is currently trading within prior value zone during GLOBEX Session. Initial cycle rally target (13467) has been fulfilled. Prior range was 365 handles on 657k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13492 PVA Low Edge = 13310 Prior POC = 13433
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13467, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13555 – 13585 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13467, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13375 – 13360 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13560; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13309; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13375; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13467; 10 Day Average True Range: 180; VIX: 23
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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