Trade Strategy 1.26.21

Markets

 

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $61B, 5-Year Note Auction

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Textbook Taylor CD1 Decline unfolded as expected, with price driving lower to fulfill average decline and violation levels respectively. Once a “secure low” was in-place, this cycle’s rally began, pushing price higher to the CD1 average range target. Range was 64.75 handles on 1.723M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Initial cycle targets have been fulfilled, so normal expectation for this CD2 is for some price consolidation to absorb recent activity. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 3852, initially targets 3859 – 3861 zone.

2.) Price sustains an offer below 3852, initially targets 3839 – 3836 zone.

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 3851       PVA Low Edge = 3826         Prior POC = 3846

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2021 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3856; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3822; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3836; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3852.50; 10 Day Average True Range  35; VIX: 23

 

 

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is currently trading within prior value zone during GLOBEX Session. Initial cycle rally target (13467) has been fulfilled. Prior range was 365 handles on 657k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 13492       PVA Low Edge = 13310      Prior POC = 13433

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13467, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13555 – 13585 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13467, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13375 – 13360 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2021 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 13560; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13309; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13375; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13467; 10 Day Average True Range: 180; VIX: 23

 

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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