Markets
Another day, another yield battle. The bond market went on a wild ride over the last 24 hours, with the 10-year Treasury yield shooting up 11 bps to a 14-month high of 1.75%, before ending the session at 1.72%. The move weighed on equities, especially the tech sector, with the Nasdaq tumbling another 3% on Thursday to re-enter correction territory. It didn’t last long. The 10-year yield then fell back 4 bps to 1.68%, prompting Nasdaq futures to rebound 1% and lead overnight gains.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Having fulfilled cycle objectives and with buyers switching to selling, prices accelerated to the downside throughout the session, closing near lows. Range was 78 handles on 1.058M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price has exceeded the Average CD1 Decline (3923) and is currently trading below this level during Globex Session. “Risk-Off” sentiment along with QUAD-Options Expiration should keep traders on high-alert for elevated volatility to end the week. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3923, initially targets 3940 – 3945 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3923, initially targets 3900 – 3890 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3959 PVA Low Edge = 3923 Prior POC = 3939
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3957; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3864; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3945; 10 Day Average True Range 58; VIX: 21
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price is currently trading below prior value range, during Globex Session. Prior Range was 505 handles on 664k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13069 PVA Low Edge = 12901 Prior POC = 12955
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 12900, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13015 – 13060 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 12900, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13800 – 12695 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13071; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12540; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12057; 10 Day Average True Range: 358; VIX: 21
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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