The relationship between stocks and bond yields couldn’t be stronger, with the two joined at the hip for the last several weeks. Overnight, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped 5 bps to 1.68%, prompting the Nasdaq to advance 0.8%, while the Dow and S&P 500 inched down 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.
10:00 Existing Home Sales
9:00 Powell: “How Can Central Banks Innovate in the Digital Age?”
10:30 Fed’s Barkin: “Anticipating COVID Scarring”
1:00 PM Fed’s Daly: “The New Future of Work: Future of Education”
1:30 PM Fed’s Quarles Speech
7:15 PM Fed’s Bowman: Economic Outlook
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price declined as expected placing CD1 Low (3875). Range was 48.50 handles on 1.856M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 is balancing / consolidation is unfolding during overnight trade with an underlying bid bias. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3910, initially targets 3918 – 3923 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3910, initially targets 3897 – 3890 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3918 PVA Low Edge = 3897 Prior POC = 3910
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3936; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3860; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3927; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3937; 10 Day Average True Range 51; VIX: 21
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is currently trading above prior value zone during overnight trade. Prior Range was 505 handles on 664k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 12878 PVA Low Edge = 12791 Prior POC = 12856
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 12956, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13000 – 13030 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 12956, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12880 – 12820 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13118; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12632; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12956; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13020; 10 Day Average True Range: 330; VIX: 21
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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