Markets
Equity benchmarks in Japan and China dropped 1% overnight and Europe is down more than 2% at midday. Things aren’t looking brighter in the U.S., where futures linked to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are all off by about 1.2%, a day after hitting fresh records. Meanwhile, the dollar edged higher, while oil slipped 1% to $71/bbl following a supply policy breakdown at the latest round of OPEC+ talks.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
Bigger picture: The non-farm payrolls report from last Friday showed the U.S. adding 850K jobs in June, though it would take more than a year at that rate to restore employment to pre-pandemic trends
Job openings remained at a record high of 9.2M in May, according to the latest data from the Labor Department, though quits dropped slightly to 3.6M, from a historic peak of 3.9M in April.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price rallied nearly fulfilling (by 2 pts) 3 Day Cycle objective (4354.50). Given the margin of error, effectively the target was achieved. Range was 33 handles on 1.180M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Today is unfolding totally opposite from prior session, markedly. Price is currently down 72 handles during overnight activity as worries have resurfaced about the economic comeback from the pandemic. Japan declared a state of emergency in Tokyo for the upcoming Olympics. Volatility Index has spiked to 20.87.
Typically the DTS just focuses on price action without regard to “reasons” behind the movement. But there are times where investor/trader sentiment shifts carry weight, which can remain for several days/weeks. This may be one of those times. With markets bumping along at all-time highs, traders are looking for catalysts to lighten up on long positions. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4300, initially targets 4315 – 4320 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4300, initially targets 4280 – 4275 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4352 PVA Low Edge = 4340 Prior POC = 4346
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4304; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4328; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4336; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4354.50; 10 Day Average True Range 24; VIX: 20.87
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has sold off over 252 handles during overnight activity as worries increase regarding the sustainability of the economic recovery. Prior range was 158 handles on 467k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14844 PVA Low Edge = 14778 Prior POC = 14804
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14700, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14750 – 14780 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14700, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14580 – 14545 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14784; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14631; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14629; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14774; 10 Day Average True Range: 113; VIX: 15.85
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN