Beware of selloff! Not really. The major averages barely recorded a 1% decline on Thursday despite headlines that flagged concerns about a pandemic recovery. While the indexes are on track to close lower for the week, futures turned higher overnight with Cyclical’s back in the lead: Dow +0.6%; S&P 500 +0.4%; Nasdaq -0.1%
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Dramatic drop in prior session appears to be only a test of support between 4275 – 4280, as the BTFD Crowd took advantage of the temporary weakness. Range was 73 handles on 1.959M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price has recovered three-fourth’s of the prior session decline and holding bid pre-RTH. Three-Day Cycle Statistic has been fulfilled, so today well mark as a “wild-card”. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4335, initially targets 4345 – 4350 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4335, initially targets 4315 – 4310 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4321 PVA Low Edge = 4293 Prior POC = 4309
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…We’ll mark this day as a “wild-card”, as cycle objectives have been fulfilled with price recovering the CD1 Low (14726), where it currently resides pre-RTH. Prior Range was 282 with 327k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14694 PVA Low Edge = 14566 Prior POC = 14622
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14742, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14782 – 14804 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14742, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14695 – 14665 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN