The latest figures on inflation and growth will be front and center this week. The June consumer price index will be published tomorrow, while the producer price reading will be announced on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also due to give his semiannual monetary policy report before the U.S. House and Senate on Wednesday and Thursday, while the June retail sales will be released on Friday
9:30 Fed’s Williams: “Inflation: Dynamics, Expectations and Targeting”
11:30 Results of $58B, 3-Year Note Auction
12:00 PM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
1:00 PM Results of $38B, 10-Year Note Auction
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price continued this cycle’s rally up to new all-time highs capping a strong weekly performance. Range was 70.75 handles on 1.204M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4335. Price has found responsive buyers at the previous session’s “B-Period” Low (4342) and is currently trading 4352 pre-RTH. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4352, initially targets 4365 – 4370 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4352, initially targets 4342 – 4335 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4364 PVA Low Edge = 4338 Prior POC = 4361
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4372; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4334; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4332; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4376; 10 Day Average True Range 31; VIX: 17
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NQ is beginning the week near all-time established during prior week’s activity. Prior range was 191 handles on 408k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14832 PVA Low Edge = 14710 Prior POC = 14807
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14832, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14850 – 14862 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14832, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14807 – 14790 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14924; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14713; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14752; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15032; 10 Day Average True Range: 139; VIX: 17
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN