Get ready for the second quarter earnings season, which formally kicks off today as JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) release results. Other major financial institutions will also report this week, including Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Thursday. The banking industry is likely to unveil some blowout results, with S&P 500 financial sector earnings doubling year over year, though much of that growth will be measured against a time when much of the economy was brought to a pandemic standstill.
The latest figures on inflation will be reported today as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its Consumer Price Index for June. The data is likely to be driven by reopening categories, with another whopping 4.9% print for June (after a 5% gain Y/Y in May). It will also be the first CPI since Fed minutes showed some concern among policymakers over rising prices, with “a substantial majority” of FOMC officials seeing inflation risks “tilted to the upside.”
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
12:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
12:45 PM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
1:00 PM Results of $24B, 30-Year Note Auction
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Shallow decline during Globex lead to RTH rally fulfilling 3 Day Cycle Target (4376). Expanded Cycle Target measures 4396 which is a match for Profile Balance Target (4400). Range was 37.50 handles on 1.024M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Typical action for CD2 would be some ‘back n fill’ consolidation to absorb recent gains. After a brief spike to 20.87 in the Volatility Index (VIX) last week, it is back down to historical norm of 16.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4370, initially targets 4388 – 4396 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4370, initially targets 4360 – 4355 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4378 PVA Low Edge = 4363 Prior POC = 4371
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4400; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4348; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4340; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4376; 10 Day Average True Range 31; VIX: 16
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price continues it’s trek higher with no signs yet of a topping formation. Normal expectation for CD2 is some consolidation, but so far NQ is not following the script. Prior range was 104 handles on 357k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14858 PVA Low Edge = 14817 Prior POC = 14838
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14888, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14920 – 14940 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14888, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14850 – 14845 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14980; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14798; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14788; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15032; 10 Day Average True Range: 130; VIX: 16
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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