Markets
The S&P 500 (SPY) closed Monday at a 2022 low of 3,655.04, but RBC Capital Markets argues the index could shed another roughly 4% to reach 3,500 – or even 3,050 if equities experience a 1970s-style meltdown.
Economic Calendar
8:30 Durable Goods
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:55 Fed’s Bullard Speech
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $44B, 5-Year Note Auction
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 as price oscillated in a wide range within our pre-set BUY/SELL Zones outlined in previous DTS Report. Range was 73 handles on 2.820M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently above CD1 Low (3660.25) with expectation of a Positive 3-Day Cycle Statistic. We’ll be looking for continuation of range-type trade as traders reposition their books for the next directional leg. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 3700, initially targets 3725 – 3730 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 3700, initially targets 3675 – 3670 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3698 PVA Low Edge = 3664 Prior POC = 3689
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3762; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3626; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3731; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3753; 10 Day Average True Range 98; VIX: 31
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Normal CD2 unfolded as price consolidated within a wide range. Expectation is for a Positive 3 Day Cycle and continued two-way trade. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11390, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11515 – 11540 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11390, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11330 – 11300 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11407 PVA Low Edge = 11305 Prior POC = 11320
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11659; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11154; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11466; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11632; 10 Day Average True Range: 360; VIX: 31
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN6.22.22