Markets
NFP PREVIEW is provided by NewSquawk.com
PREVIEW: US nonfarm payrolls (Feb’23) to be released on Friday March 10th at 13:30GMT/08:30EST
EXPECTATIONS: The consensus looks for 203k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in February (forecast range: 100-325k), with the pace cooling from the 517k added in January. If the consensus is realized, it would be lower than the pace of the 3-, 6- and 12-month averages, at 356k, 349k and 414k respectively. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.4% (range: 3.3-3.5%); the Fed projects that the jobless rate will peak at 4.6% in 2023, although the central bank will update its economic projections at the March 21-22nd confab.
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 as price declined establishing a new cycle low at 3909.50. Early AM Strength gave way to PM Liquidation selling, which drove price down, closing near session lows. Prior range was 110 handles on 2.310M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is back n fill consolidation to work off recent liquidation activity. Today NON-FARM Payroll (i.e. Jobs Report) is the BIG KAHUNA for price action. (see details of the street’s expectations above). We will stay flexible to trading opportunity on either side as we anticipate an elevated level of volatility. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3910, initially targets 3935 – 3940 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3910, initially targets 3890 – 3885 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4018 PVA Low Edge = 3950 Prior POC = 4013
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3968; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3856; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3984; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3981; 10 Day Average True Range 62; VIX: 22
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 as price declined establishing a new cycle low at 11977.50. Early AM Strength gave way to PM Liquidation selling, which drove price down, closing near session lows. Prior range was 376 handles on 797k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is back n fill consolidation to work off recent liquidation activity. Today NON-FARM Payroll (i.e. Jobs Report) is the BIG KAHUNA for price action. (see details of the street’s expectations above). We will stay flexible to trading opportunity on either side as we anticipate an elevated level of volatility. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12000, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12060– 12080 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12000, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11940 – 11930 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12352 PVA Low Edge = 12115 Prior POC = 12300
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12196; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11765; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12182; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12270; 10 Day Average True Range: 240; VIX: 22
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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