Markets (Top Stories)
Credit Suisse (CS) shares plunged 18% premarket to a record low today after the bank’s top shareholder ruled out offering further financial assistance to the lender. Saudi National Bank Chairman Ammar Al Khudairy cited regulatory concerns as the reason behind not being open to injecting more capital into the bank. Credit Suisse disclosed a material weakness in its reporting procedures yesterday, which led to concerns over the bank’s internal controls.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Producer Price Index
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
S&P 500
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price established a cycle low @ 3885 during a volatile CPI release. Once the market stabilized, firm bids pushed price higher to fulfill key 3-Day Cycle Target @ 3960, as well as Target Master (3965 – 3970) Zonal Target. Reversal Selloff during the afternoon session retested the morning breakout with a final Market On Close $4.3 Billion Buy Imbalance. Prior range was 87 handles on 2.213M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 would be for some consolidation of previous volatile session. BUT…Overnight trade has price cascading lower on negative Credit Suisse news. Pre-RTH price has fulfilled lower extreme target zone (3890 – 3880) as well as Cycle Day 1 Low (3885). As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3885, initially targets 3900 – 3910 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3885, initially targets 3855 – 3845 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3965 PVA Low Edge = 3925 Prior POC = 3951
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 2 (CD2)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3948; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3886; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3921; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3940; 10 Day Average True Range 78; VIX: 27
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price established a cycle low @ 12032 during a volatile CPI release.Prior range was 324 handles on 639k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 would be for some consolidation of previous volatile session. BUT…Overnight trade has price cascading lower on negative Credit Suisse news. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12100, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12175– 12185 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12100, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12040 – 12030 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12325 PVA Low Edge = 12177 Prior POC = 12262
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12380; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12090; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12113; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12268; 10 Day Average True Range: 283; VIX: 27
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN